Being that election day is coming on Tuesday, I am going to share my predictions for the races in the Town of Smithtown, and the Suffolk County Legislature.
This year is exciting. Many things have changed since the last legislature election (i.e. Obama being elected, the Democrats taking dominant control of
Congress, Democrats taking control of the State Senate, and the Senate stalemate). On the County level, there are more open races this year so close to
Election Day than there has been in recent memory. Tuesday will show whether there is a change in the tide, or an acceptance of recent changes. Tuesday should
give us all a good indicator as to which direction the 2010 elections are headed in. The candidates I feel will win on Tuesday are in BOLD,
and I will also comment on some races.
Town of Smithtown Election:
1. Town Clerk (unopposed):
Vincent Puleo (Inc.; R).
2. Highway Superintendent:
Dan Ryan (Inc.; D,) v. Glen Jorgensen (R).
Bill Ellis and the Smithtown Republican Committee really dropped the ball on this one. For the second time in as many years, the Town GOP caused infighting and another costly primary. The Town GOP endorsed Conservative and previous Highway Superintendent Dan Donnelly, where Glen Jorgensen primaried the better-known Donnelly. Despite the odds against him, Jorgensen and his wife mounted an impressive primary campaign and convincingly defeated Donnelly back in September. Jorgensen touts himself as the first man to begin with a shovel and work his way up the ladder to the top in the Highway Department. Jorgensen knows the job, and has some great ideas to improve the efficiency and quality of the work within the department. However, primaries cost money and a tremendous amount of energy. If the Town GOP stuck by Jorgensen from the beginning, he could have mounted a good, and possibly successful, campaign against Ryan. Dan Ryan is a good man, and tries his best as Superintendent. Unfortunately, he is a Democrat in a town controlled by a longstanding Republican Supervisor, and 3-1 Republican Council. Dan continually fights an uphill battle to get anything done, but he will most likely get another 4 years to try.
3. Town Council (Pick Two):
Kevin Malloy (R)
Mark Mancini (D)
Tom McCarthy (Inc.; R)
Craig Tortora (D)
Incumbent Pat Biancanello (D) vacated her seat to pursue a run for Supervisor. Biancanello was the only Democrat in a 3-1 Republican majority Town Board. Biancanello's vacancy gives the Republicans a significant chance to retake complete control of the Board in a 2:1 republican to democrat town. McCarthy, the only incumbent running, will most likely easily win his re-election bid despite some rumors about his involvement with now-disgraced former building director Robert Bonerba. It is all just rumors, nothing has, nor will it ever likely, been proved. Craig Tortora is an interesting guy, but he has not been able to gain any traction to mount a serious challenge. The most interesting part of this election is the final spot, which will most likely be fought for between Kevin Malloy and Mark Mancini. Mark Mancini is an architect from Smithtown that has a bright future for downtown Smithtown on his agenda; specifically downtown Smithtown revitalization. However, his idea of bringing commercial retailers to downtown Smithtown does not sit well with many residents. There are significant concerns about traffic on Main Street, and many feel his plan will just add to the already pressing problem. Furthermore, in order for revitalization of the downtown to come to fruition, sewering of Smithtown is a must. This is an issue that is accomplished on the County level, and something more than a letter writing campaign is needed. Sewering of downtown Smithtown has been a top priority of Legislators Nowick and Kennedy for years now, and despite their tireless effort, County Executive Levy has been reluctant to put money into a town that is controlled by Republicans, and the two sitting Legislators are Republican. Levy is a vindictive political animal and he will not give anything to a Republican town so that the Republican officials can hang their hat on it. It is my opinion that Kevin Malloy will win the final seat. He is an attorney from Smithtown and first-time candidate. He has been a lifelong resident and has a great working relationship with Legislator John Kennedy. He envisions working hard with Kennedy to make the sewering the downtown Smithtown a reality. He has also brought forward some good, and realistic ideas about combatting the heroin issue that is plaguing many Smithtown youths. If Mancini does in fact beat Malloy, look for Malloy to take a spot on Kennedy's staff. If that happens, he will be a HUGE asset to an already affective office and a benefit to all Suffolk County residents.
4. Supervisor:
Patrick Vecchio (Inc.; R) v. Patricia Biancanello (D).
As they say, you must take the championship away from the champ, not merely beat him. Biancanello, the town's only Democratic Council member, should have stayed where she was. If she remained on the Council, she could have assured a Democratic presence in the town. Now she has given Republicans the chance to take complete control of the Council. Pat Vecchio has lowered taxes in his new operating budget, and has not raised taxes on Smithtown residents in a generation. As the longest sitting Supervisor in New York, unseating him is nearly impossible. Biancanello has called for Obamaesque reform, but unlike Barack, she won't be successful. There just isn't anything to reform. Why fix something that isn't broken? Vecchio in a landslide.
Suffolk County Legislature:
1st District:
Ed Romaine (Inc.; R) v. Mark Commando (D).
2nd District (Unopposed):
Jay Schneiderman (Inc.)
Schneiderman is a lame-duck legislator. I cannot believe neither party could mount a challenge to him. The guy can never make up his mind when its time to vote, and no one ever knows where he is going to go on any issue. He's all about what is good for Jay, not his constituents. He has a beautiful office, and that's about it.
3rd District:
Kate Browning (Inc.; WF) v. Carol Bissonette (R).
This is going to be a close race. Kate is a living example of the American Dream. As an Irish Catholic from Belfast, Ireland, Kate fled the civil war only to come to America and fight for everything she has gained. Kate works hard, and does the best with what she's given, which is not much in that district. Carol is certainly cabable of being a successful Legislator, and is a very nice woman. This race is up in the air, but I hope Kate wins.
4th District:
Brian Beedendender (Inc.; D) v. Tom Muratore (R).
This is another too-close-to-call race. Tom almost beat Brian two years ago after Joe Carracappa was termed out. Brian rode Steve Levy's fundraising ability and then-popular name into the seat, but Tom almost pulled it off. Unfortunately for Brian, he hasn't done much that he can point to in his first term. I feel that Brian will be a victim of the anti-incumbent sentiment after the Senate stalemate. In a close race, Tom pulls it off.
5th District:
Vivian Viloria-Fisher (Inc.; D) v. Peter Busacca (R).
6th District:
Daniel Losquadro (Inc.; R) v. Bryan Lilly (D).
7th District:
Jack Eddington (Inc.; WF) v. L. Dean Murray (R).
Jack Eddington has most likely caused himself to lose this election. Eddington has spent more time fighting Steve Levy than he has the Republicans. Also, Eddington's district is in the heart of the recent hate crimes issues of Patchogue. There is a serious need for change, and being a minor party candidate (although he also has the D line), Eddington is ripe for picking. Two years ago, Brian Egan almost unseated Eddington in a race that had no business being so close. Egan's campaign was run by Murray. The only issue that is going against Murray is that he has not been a long-term Suffolk resident. Actually, Murray is relatively new to the district he is seeking to represent. However, the political climate is against Eddington this year, and instead of taking to oppotunity to stregthen his hold on his seat, he has felt that challenging Steve Levy's every move was more important. In yet another close race, Murray wins.
8th District:
William Lindsay (Inc.; D) v. Matthew Silecchia (R).
Not even close. If Silecchia wins, I will tattoo his name on my forehead.
9th District:
Ricardo Montano (Inc.; D)
Great man, great Legislator.
10th District:
Patrick Nolan (D) v. Tom Cilmi (D) v. Tim Molnar (C).
Anyone who has seen my recent posts knows who I think should win this race. Unfortunately, the person who should win doesn't always win and that is the case here. Tom Cilmi would make a phenomenal Legislator and if he does lose, I hope he sticks around and challenges Pat again in 2011. This election is not about the issues, but it is about politics. The infighting in the Islip Republican Committee will cause the Republicans to lose this seat, which is being vacated by the termed Republican Legislator Cameron Alden. Also, if it weren't for Pat's name recognition, he would be a know nothing 27 year old who wouldn't stand a chance in this race. He isn't offering anything worth mentioning as to why he should be elected. Brendan Stanton would have been a far better candidate and legislator than Pat. Pat has a history of quitting when times get tough, lets hope that's not the case after he's elected. The main reason this seat will go to Pat is not because he will be a good legislator or that he has anything will offer. The reason he wins is because Tom only has one line (R) and he will lose votes to Molnar. If the Republicans actually cared about this seat, Molnar would have dropped out. Winning with one line is nearly impossible, especially when your opponent has 3 (D, I, WF). Regardless of this, the race will be close and although I see Pat winning, I would not be surprised if Tom pulled it out.
11th District:
Tom Barraga (Inc.; R) v. James Alcus (D).
12th District:
John M. Kennedy, Jr. (Inc.; R) v. Edward Toulon, Jr. (D).
In a change from two years ago, Kennedy is running for re-election in a contest that is uncontentious and with the support of his party. Kennedy really came into his own this term, and is by far the hardest working Legislator in the County. You can oftentimes find him in his office working weekends, and many weekdays until 9 p.m. For many other candidates, hiring your wife to work in your office would spell the end of their political career. However, Kennedy has a lot to offer. If he just learned how to separate his personal life from his professional life, he could be a force on the State or Federal circuit.
13th District:
Lynne C. Nowick (Inc.; R) v. Rachel Kerdman (D).
Lynne is hot for an older woman.
14th District:
Wayne Horsley (Inc.; D) v. Mark Gallo (R).
15th District:
DuWayne Gregory (Inc.; D) v. Edward White, Jr. (R).
The third time will not be a charm for White. White mounted commendable campaigns back in 2007 (vs. Elie Mystal) and then again last year in the special election against Gregory, after Mystal was forced to resign after it was found that he did not live in his district. White could have, and probably would have beat Gregory in the special election if the Republicans could have settled on a candidate (sense a common theme here?). Instead, the party split votes amongst Democrat tuned temporary Republican Jordan Wilson (who was outwardly campaigning for a Democrat while campaigning on the Babylon Republican Party's dime) and White. White had a strong showing in a district that is 7:1 Democrat to Republican, however he failed to link Gregory to the illegal activities of Mystal (Gregory was his Chief of Staff but didn't know he didn't live in the district? hmmm). Doing so now is too little too late. Gregory has done just a tad more than nothing since being elected last year. His transition period and learning curve was extremely slow for someone who worked in the Legislature for years before being elected. I expect another strong showing from White, especially now that he doesn't have to fight for votes from his own party. I would not be surprised if White pulled this one off, but I just don't see it. Gregory in yet another close election.
16th District:
Steve Stern (Inc.; D) v. William Matthew Groh (R).
17th District:
Louis D'Amaro (Inc.; D) v. Kevin Meyer (R).
18th District:
Jon Cooper (Inc.; D) v. Frank Stalzer (R).
Cooper has to win this race in a convincing fashion if he still holds any hope of seeking statewide office. I don't expect he will have a problem. The interesting issue about this seat will occur if Cooper vacates his seat mid-term to run for US Senate. I can see the Republicans taking this seat if that happens, but not just yet.
Overview:
As is sits now, the Democrats hold a majority 11 (9 Dem, 2 WF) to 7 (6 Rep, 1 Ind). While I don't see the Republicans regaining control this election cycle, I see them closing the gap (10 to 8). I see the Democrats losing two incumbent seats (Beedenbender and Eddington) and the Republicans losing one seat (Alden, termed out) which would result in a one-seat gain for Republicans. However, anything could happen. So many county races are neck-and-neck with only one weekend left to go. The Republicans could very well take control back, but they could very easily lose seats as well. What I do know is that the results of this election will be an indicator of what to expect in next year's state and federal mid-term elections. More will be known at around 9:30 p.m EST Tuesday. Good luck to all candidates, and make sure everyone gets out and casts their vote (more than one if you would like, just make sure you use different IDs (ACORN)).
As you can see, I am a Smithtown resident, therefore I did not delve into the races in any other towns. I encourage everyone to comment on these predictions and feel free to post some of your own.
Town of Smithtown Election:
1. Town Clerk (unopposed):
Vincent Puleo (Inc.; R).
2. Highway Superintendent:
Dan Ryan (Inc.; D,) v. Glen Jorgensen (R).
Bill Ellis and the Smithtown Republican Committee really dropped the ball on this one. For the second time in as many years, the Town GOP caused infighting and another costly primary. The Town GOP endorsed Conservative and previous Highway Superintendent Dan Donnelly, where Glen Jorgensen primaried the better-known Donnelly. Despite the odds against him, Jorgensen and his wife mounted an impressive primary campaign and convincingly defeated Donnelly back in September. Jorgensen touts himself as the first man to begin with a shovel and work his way up the ladder to the top in the Highway Department. Jorgensen knows the job, and has some great ideas to improve the efficiency and quality of the work within the department. However, primaries cost money and a tremendous amount of energy. If the Town GOP stuck by Jorgensen from the beginning, he could have mounted a good, and possibly successful, campaign against Ryan. Dan Ryan is a good man, and tries his best as Superintendent. Unfortunately, he is a Democrat in a town controlled by a longstanding Republican Supervisor, and 3-1 Republican Council. Dan continually fights an uphill battle to get anything done, but he will most likely get another 4 years to try.
3. Town Council (Pick Two):
Kevin Malloy (R)
Mark Mancini (D)
Tom McCarthy (Inc.; R)
Craig Tortora (D)
Incumbent Pat Biancanello (D) vacated her seat to pursue a run for Supervisor. Biancanello was the only Democrat in a 3-1 Republican majority Town Board. Biancanello's vacancy gives the Republicans a significant chance to retake complete control of the Board in a 2:1 republican to democrat town. McCarthy, the only incumbent running, will most likely easily win his re-election bid despite some rumors about his involvement with now-disgraced former building director Robert Bonerba. It is all just rumors, nothing has, nor will it ever likely, been proved. Craig Tortora is an interesting guy, but he has not been able to gain any traction to mount a serious challenge. The most interesting part of this election is the final spot, which will most likely be fought for between Kevin Malloy and Mark Mancini. Mark Mancini is an architect from Smithtown that has a bright future for downtown Smithtown on his agenda; specifically downtown Smithtown revitalization. However, his idea of bringing commercial retailers to downtown Smithtown does not sit well with many residents. There are significant concerns about traffic on Main Street, and many feel his plan will just add to the already pressing problem. Furthermore, in order for revitalization of the downtown to come to fruition, sewering of Smithtown is a must. This is an issue that is accomplished on the County level, and something more than a letter writing campaign is needed. Sewering of downtown Smithtown has been a top priority of Legislators Nowick and Kennedy for years now, and despite their tireless effort, County Executive Levy has been reluctant to put money into a town that is controlled by Republicans, and the two sitting Legislators are Republican. Levy is a vindictive political animal and he will not give anything to a Republican town so that the Republican officials can hang their hat on it. It is my opinion that Kevin Malloy will win the final seat. He is an attorney from Smithtown and first-time candidate. He has been a lifelong resident and has a great working relationship with Legislator John Kennedy. He envisions working hard with Kennedy to make the sewering the downtown Smithtown a reality. He has also brought forward some good, and realistic ideas about combatting the heroin issue that is plaguing many Smithtown youths. If Mancini does in fact beat Malloy, look for Malloy to take a spot on Kennedy's staff. If that happens, he will be a HUGE asset to an already affective office and a benefit to all Suffolk County residents.
4. Supervisor:
Patrick Vecchio (Inc.; R) v. Patricia Biancanello (D).
As they say, you must take the championship away from the champ, not merely beat him. Biancanello, the town's only Democratic Council member, should have stayed where she was. If she remained on the Council, she could have assured a Democratic presence in the town. Now she has given Republicans the chance to take complete control of the Council. Pat Vecchio has lowered taxes in his new operating budget, and has not raised taxes on Smithtown residents in a generation. As the longest sitting Supervisor in New York, unseating him is nearly impossible. Biancanello has called for Obamaesque reform, but unlike Barack, she won't be successful. There just isn't anything to reform. Why fix something that isn't broken? Vecchio in a landslide.
Suffolk County Legislature:
1st District:
Ed Romaine (Inc.; R) v. Mark Commando (D).
2nd District (Unopposed):
Jay Schneiderman (Inc.)
Schneiderman is a lame-duck legislator. I cannot believe neither party could mount a challenge to him. The guy can never make up his mind when its time to vote, and no one ever knows where he is going to go on any issue. He's all about what is good for Jay, not his constituents. He has a beautiful office, and that's about it.
3rd District:
Kate Browning (Inc.; WF) v. Carol Bissonette (R).
This is going to be a close race. Kate is a living example of the American Dream. As an Irish Catholic from Belfast, Ireland, Kate fled the civil war only to come to America and fight for everything she has gained. Kate works hard, and does the best with what she's given, which is not much in that district. Carol is certainly cabable of being a successful Legislator, and is a very nice woman. This race is up in the air, but I hope Kate wins.
4th District:
Brian Beedendender (Inc.; D) v. Tom Muratore (R).
This is another too-close-to-call race. Tom almost beat Brian two years ago after Joe Carracappa was termed out. Brian rode Steve Levy's fundraising ability and then-popular name into the seat, but Tom almost pulled it off. Unfortunately for Brian, he hasn't done much that he can point to in his first term. I feel that Brian will be a victim of the anti-incumbent sentiment after the Senate stalemate. In a close race, Tom pulls it off.
5th District:
Vivian Viloria-Fisher (Inc.; D) v. Peter Busacca (R).
6th District:
Daniel Losquadro (Inc.; R) v. Bryan Lilly (D).
7th District:
Jack Eddington (Inc.; WF) v. L. Dean Murray (R).
Jack Eddington has most likely caused himself to lose this election. Eddington has spent more time fighting Steve Levy than he has the Republicans. Also, Eddington's district is in the heart of the recent hate crimes issues of Patchogue. There is a serious need for change, and being a minor party candidate (although he also has the D line), Eddington is ripe for picking. Two years ago, Brian Egan almost unseated Eddington in a race that had no business being so close. Egan's campaign was run by Murray. The only issue that is going against Murray is that he has not been a long-term Suffolk resident. Actually, Murray is relatively new to the district he is seeking to represent. However, the political climate is against Eddington this year, and instead of taking to oppotunity to stregthen his hold on his seat, he has felt that challenging Steve Levy's every move was more important. In yet another close race, Murray wins.
8th District:
William Lindsay (Inc.; D) v. Matthew Silecchia (R).
Not even close. If Silecchia wins, I will tattoo his name on my forehead.
9th District:
Ricardo Montano (Inc.; D)
Great man, great Legislator.
10th District:
Patrick Nolan (D) v. Tom Cilmi (D) v. Tim Molnar (C).
Anyone who has seen my recent posts knows who I think should win this race. Unfortunately, the person who should win doesn't always win and that is the case here. Tom Cilmi would make a phenomenal Legislator and if he does lose, I hope he sticks around and challenges Pat again in 2011. This election is not about the issues, but it is about politics. The infighting in the Islip Republican Committee will cause the Republicans to lose this seat, which is being vacated by the termed Republican Legislator Cameron Alden. Also, if it weren't for Pat's name recognition, he would be a know nothing 27 year old who wouldn't stand a chance in this race. He isn't offering anything worth mentioning as to why he should be elected. Brendan Stanton would have been a far better candidate and legislator than Pat. Pat has a history of quitting when times get tough, lets hope that's not the case after he's elected. The main reason this seat will go to Pat is not because he will be a good legislator or that he has anything will offer. The reason he wins is because Tom only has one line (R) and he will lose votes to Molnar. If the Republicans actually cared about this seat, Molnar would have dropped out. Winning with one line is nearly impossible, especially when your opponent has 3 (D, I, WF). Regardless of this, the race will be close and although I see Pat winning, I would not be surprised if Tom pulled it out.
11th District:
Tom Barraga (Inc.; R) v. James Alcus (D).
12th District:
John M. Kennedy, Jr. (Inc.; R) v. Edward Toulon, Jr. (D).
In a change from two years ago, Kennedy is running for re-election in a contest that is uncontentious and with the support of his party. Kennedy really came into his own this term, and is by far the hardest working Legislator in the County. You can oftentimes find him in his office working weekends, and many weekdays until 9 p.m. For many other candidates, hiring your wife to work in your office would spell the end of their political career. However, Kennedy has a lot to offer. If he just learned how to separate his personal life from his professional life, he could be a force on the State or Federal circuit.
13th District:
Lynne C. Nowick (Inc.; R) v. Rachel Kerdman (D).
Lynne is hot for an older woman.
14th District:
Wayne Horsley (Inc.; D) v. Mark Gallo (R).
15th District:
DuWayne Gregory (Inc.; D) v. Edward White, Jr. (R).
The third time will not be a charm for White. White mounted commendable campaigns back in 2007 (vs. Elie Mystal) and then again last year in the special election against Gregory, after Mystal was forced to resign after it was found that he did not live in his district. White could have, and probably would have beat Gregory in the special election if the Republicans could have settled on a candidate (sense a common theme here?). Instead, the party split votes amongst Democrat tuned temporary Republican Jordan Wilson (who was outwardly campaigning for a Democrat while campaigning on the Babylon Republican Party's dime) and White. White had a strong showing in a district that is 7:1 Democrat to Republican, however he failed to link Gregory to the illegal activities of Mystal (Gregory was his Chief of Staff but didn't know he didn't live in the district? hmmm). Doing so now is too little too late. Gregory has done just a tad more than nothing since being elected last year. His transition period and learning curve was extremely slow for someone who worked in the Legislature for years before being elected. I expect another strong showing from White, especially now that he doesn't have to fight for votes from his own party. I would not be surprised if White pulled this one off, but I just don't see it. Gregory in yet another close election.
16th District:
Steve Stern (Inc.; D) v. William Matthew Groh (R).
17th District:
Louis D'Amaro (Inc.; D) v. Kevin Meyer (R).
18th District:
Jon Cooper (Inc.; D) v. Frank Stalzer (R).
Cooper has to win this race in a convincing fashion if he still holds any hope of seeking statewide office. I don't expect he will have a problem. The interesting issue about this seat will occur if Cooper vacates his seat mid-term to run for US Senate. I can see the Republicans taking this seat if that happens, but not just yet.
Overview:
As is sits now, the Democrats hold a majority 11 (9 Dem, 2 WF) to 7 (6 Rep, 1 Ind). While I don't see the Republicans regaining control this election cycle, I see them closing the gap (10 to 8). I see the Democrats losing two incumbent seats (Beedenbender and Eddington) and the Republicans losing one seat (Alden, termed out) which would result in a one-seat gain for Republicans. However, anything could happen. So many county races are neck-and-neck with only one weekend left to go. The Republicans could very well take control back, but they could very easily lose seats as well. What I do know is that the results of this election will be an indicator of what to expect in next year's state and federal mid-term elections. More will be known at around 9:30 p.m EST Tuesday. Good luck to all candidates, and make sure everyone gets out and casts their vote (more than one if you would like, just make sure you use different IDs (ACORN)).
As you can see, I am a Smithtown resident, therefore I did not delve into the races in any other towns. I encourage everyone to comment on these predictions and feel free to post some of your own.
