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 LMVT |
Southampton Debates & Predictions |
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Posts: 949 (10/23/09 00:42:53) All-Star Blogger |
So any thoughts on the debates yet? I went to my first one tonight at Rogers (I usually go to them all, but my cousin passed away a few weeks ago).
Is it time yet to make our Election Night predictions? |
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Gunna Win it |
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Posts: 1038 (10/23/09 10:25:23) |
Beting the ranch on Sundy and 3 of the 5 trustees.
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Bob Olson |
That's a pretty safe bet Gunna | ||
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Posts: 1094 (10/23/09 16:33:39) All-Star Blogger |
None of the other bets are that safe, especially the supervisor's race which has essentially been handed to Linda's opponent. I heard Bruce Tria on
WRIV report that the Democrat running for supervisor has chosen not to post her financial filings as required by law by the Oct 2nd deadline. I wonder what
she has to hide?
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LMVT |
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Posts: 950 (10/26/09 14:27:41) All-Star Blogger |
I would easily head the "Dems for Sundy" committee!
Just a general election question....if you're a candidate and file your financial statements late or not at all, isn't the fine like $50 or $100? That's not a reason not to file, but if BOE wanted candidates to take their financial filings more serious, wouldn't they stiffen the penalties? One of the campaigns I worked on, we had filed late at the end of the campaign and we received a package with every candidate in NYS that had forgottent o file....the package was like 100 pages long! BTW Bob, has she filed now? Was it a matter of she got it in late or that she didn't file? And how much do the voters pay attention to that? I know we all do, but the average voter....my guess is not much. So is that all our predictions? |
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Mr Suffolk |
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Posts: 6190 (10/29/09 00:00:18) LI's last true independent |
The fines are minimal and hard to enforce. Mostly it's a PR hit for the campaign.
Great '80s -- Playing Now on 631Radio, Long Island's Alternative.
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Mr Suffolk |
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Posts: 6192 (10/29/09 23:47:52) LI's last true independent |
My prediction -- all incumbents and Gregor win.
Great '80s -- Playing Now on 631Radio, Long Island's Alternative.
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Bob Olson |
Good prediction Mr. Suffolk | ||
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Posts: 1102 (10/30/09 07:21:55) All-Star Blogger |
It is really starting to look that way. I believe in my heart of hearts that Linda Kabot will pull this out against all odds.
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xavier110 |
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Posts: 1 (10/31/09 11:50:33) |
Predictions:
Both Anna Throne-Holst and Alex Gregor will comfortably win. Kabot or McGann winning would be a huge upset. The Town Board contest is where the real races are at. Any two of the four can win; Nuzzi and Malone are lucky that the Republican Party bosses stole the Ind. endorsements for them. Fleming and Pope are campaigning very hard to win (Fleming, especially, who's going absolutely all-out), though. I'll guess Nuzzi and Fleming win, but, like I said, I wouldn't be surprised by any combination of the four. The five incumbent trustees will win. |
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Bob Olson |
You have to be a partisan Dem xavier110 | ||
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Posts: 1107 (10/31/09 18:12:25) All-Star Blogger |
Nuzzi is a lock and will be top vote getter. Frank Mackay knows that which was why he reversed the local committee's decision to back only Democrats.
Mackay got embarassed when Steve Levy won the CE seat without his help and Levy's opponent possessing all of the other official minor party lines. Nuzzi
would have won big even without the Indy line which would have shown Frank up.
BTW, I was impressed with Jim Malone's television ad today on ESPN and Fox News. He must have decided to finally spend some of the money he has amassed but hoarding. He certainly went for the right audience. I think supervisors and highway race will both still be incredibly close.
Last Edited By: Bob Olson
10/31/09 18:38:44.
Edited 1 times.
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xavier110 |
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Posts: 2 (10/31/09 18:22:47) |
My family received the most campaign mail we've ever gotten in our 20+ years of living in Hampton Bays. I guess both sides think most of these races will
be incredibly close...
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LMVT |
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Posts: 951 (11/03/09 09:31:47) All-Star Blogger |
This is a really hard one, even as of this morning....
I go with (and not neccessarily who I'm voting for) Anna wins by a decent margin Alex wins, but it's much closer The trustee incumbants win, but with Bill Pell nipping at their heals Town Board is really the hard one...and it isn't something I would feel comfortable betting on....and to be honest I think all of them have an equal shot Chris Nuzzi wins Sally wins with Bridget in a close third or Bridget wins with Sally in a close third Oooh! I forgot to update my address so I didn't get any mailings....that makes me sad. |
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Mr Suffolk |
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Posts: 6209 (11/04/09 00:20:05) LI's last true independent |
Looks like Bill Pell may finally break the 5-0 lock on the Trustees.
Kabot was beaten. I'm not sure if her campaign had enough focus. It was a challenger's style race, not an incumbent style race. Congrats to Gregor, ATH, Nuzzi; not sure if people still Trust Sally.
Great '80s -- Playing Now on 631Radio, Long Island's Alternative.
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Mr Suffolk |
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Posts: 6218 (11/07/09 20:38:15) LI's last true independent |
Just wanted to add, in a GOP year (and the top race tainted by DWI), Alex Gregor's win was the most outside the box. I think his ideas really stuck in the
minds of voters.
Great '80s -- Playing Now on 631Radio, Long Island's Alternative.
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Bob Olson |
Alex's win was impressive however | ||
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Posts: 1120 (11/07/09 21:30:00) All-Star Blogger |
I am blown away by Bill Pell's victory which I am sure surprised even him. Since the Republican board of trustees have always run as a team, it has been
impossible for Democratic candidates to convince voters to move to another line to vote for 1 out of a group of 5. I think the Independence Party line helped
but that doesn't tell the whole story. I also think having Chris Garvey as a running mate helped Bill immensely even though Chris was unable to get
elected himself. As I said many times before, Bill Pell is a perfect example of the kind candidates Democrats in Southampton and elsewhere on the east end
need to run in order to be competitive.
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politics64 |
Kudos to Bob Olson for getting Integrity Party shout out from Kabot during her concession | ||
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Posts: 6753 (11/07/09 21:52:13) All-Star Blogger |
speech which was televised! I did have to spend the next hour explaining to my wife and daughter when they asked, Whats the Integrity Party? LOL You do good
work out there Bob and you deserved the public acknowledgment!
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Gunna Win it |
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Posts: 1041 (11/08/09 10:38:40) |
What ideas are you refering to Mr S?
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Mr Suffolk |
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Posts: 6219 (11/08/09 16:09:18) LI's last true independent |
One idea that stuck with me was contracting out solar panels for areas such as the landfill. Why not?
Great '80s -- Playing Now on 631Radio, Long Island's Alternative.
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Bob Olson |
Thanks P-64 | ||
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Posts: 1125 (11/09/09 18:30:06) All-Star Blogger |
That is high praise coming from such a partisan Dem as you. I supported Linda because I thought it was the right thing to do and I would do it again. I am
hoping to attend Linda's DWI trial in December in her support. I would not be the least surprised if there are some really interesting and surprise
developments. I imagine it will be pretty well covered by local media. I personally believe she is innocent. The trial will be staged in my hometown of
Riverhead where pretty everybody believes Linda was set up.
I have already been asked by the Southampton Democrats to help them during the special election for ATH's seat soon to be vacant due to her election. I have not committed myself. I believe I should discuss it first with Linda Kabot. I don't think for one second we have heard the last from Linda. She is an incredibly gifted and hard working public servant. She just had too many hurdles to jump and I think she ran an exceptionally great campaign under the circumstances. I am honored to call her my friend. |
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Con Chair |
just the facts | ||
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Posts: 6 (11/10/09 19:42:08) |
It is amazing how you poo poo the impact of the Conservative party. Remember Malone can't win what happened, he WON beating out 2 liberal candidates. The
people have spoken and the Conservative Party received between 10% and 15% county wide. Check the results I am dying to hear a response. Just for the record
Jim Malone was the most qualified candidate running, his resume was much better than either of the 2 liberals.
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Bruce Tria |
Question | ||
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Posts: 319 (11/10/09 21:42:56) 631-516 Politics Star Blogger |
You say the Conservative vote carried the day, but I don't understand how that could be when Alex Gregor beat the Republican candidate with Conservative
cross endorsement for Highway Superintendent. I am wondering if it is a case of people's dissatisfaction with Washington coming home to roost on a local
level. I am also wondering if there will be any lasting impact to next year's congressional races. . .
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Mr Suffolk |
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Posts: 6220 (11/10/09 23:50:08) LI's last true independent |
While it may take a miracle to beat someone like a Bishop or Israel, I'll bet, nationally, lots of Dem congresspeople are shaking in their boots.
Back to Southampton, I agree -- Malone and Nuzzi beat two Dems fair and square. Not sure if there is a "conservative" way to run Southampton. Seems there have been some financial issues of late in town.
Great '80s -- Playing Now on 631Radio, Long Island's Alternative.
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